VOTER INTERESTS PROJECT: Candidate Watch – Legislative District 10 (July 2022)

UPDATE (Jul. 21, 2022): As voters start to return ballots in the August primary, we are beginning to see independent expenditures made in favor of the candidates. Karen Lesetmoe has been the big beneficiary here, with over $107,000 spent on her behalf: $93,000 of this was by the National Association of Realtors and the balance by the Washington State Republican Party. Rep. Dave Paul, her opponent, has received less than a quarter of this support, mainly from the New Directions PAC, which receives money from Democratic Party sources and unions.

PREVIOUS UPDATES: Jun. 12, 2022, May 14, 2022, Apr. 16, 2022, Mar. 10, 2022, Jan. 17, 2022.

ORIGINAL POST: Island County voters will see both State Representative positions for Legislative District 10 on the ballot this year. As of Jan. 17, 2022, four candidates have filed with the Public Disclosure Commission (PDC) to run for these offices. Filing for with the PDC allows the candidate to begin fundraising; candidates will still have to file with the County Auditor or Secretary of State’s office during Filing Week, May 16-20, 2022.

Candidates are required to report campaign contributions, including in-kind contributions, within five business days of receipt. Expenditures must be reported on a monthly basis. Contributions, except from political party committees, are limited to $1,000 per election. Thus, an individual or organization may contribute $2,000 each election cycle: $1,000 for the primary, and $1,000 for the general election.

Unlike presidential campaigns, voters rarely see polling information on state legislative races. Fundraising can often be seen as a proxy indicator of how well a campaign is doing. While it is not true that the candidate with the most money wins, large financial disparities between candidates are often a predictor of electoral success.

Position 1

Greg Gilday (incumbent), Republican from Camano Island, filed on January 10, 2021. Mr. Gilday started with $3,889.69 left over from his 2020 campaign, and has raised $117,862.00 (up $38,225.00 from June 12) since filing, bringing his total contributions to $121,751.69. He has spent $34,602.02 (up $8,576.32). Mr. Gilday reports debts of $16,178.00. In addition, the PDC reports that independent expenditures favoring Mr. Gilday have been made in the amount of $7,126.05; no independent expenditures opposing Mr. Gilday have been reported. (See Mr. Gilday’s PDC filings.)

Clyde Shavers, Democrat from Oak Harbor, filed on January 10, 2022. Mr. Shavers reports $116,059.85 (up $42,738.24) in contributions and $51,931.88 (up $24.276.26) in expenditures and $22,000.00 (up $18,000.00) in debts. Independent expenditures totaling $147.02 have been made in favor of Mr. Shavers; non have been made against. (See Mr. Shavers’ PDC filings.)

Position 2

Dave Paul (incumbent), Democrat from Oak Harbor, filed on February 3, 2021. Mr. Paul carried $6,504.78 over from his previous campaign, and has raised $152,491.95 (up $60,300.12), for total contributions of $158,996.73. His campaign reports expenditures of $66,483.45 (up $40,755.12). He also reports debts of $21,000.00 (up $19,000.00). Mr. Paul has benefitted from $23,143.72 in independent expenditures in his favor; none have been reported against him. (See Mr. Paul’s PDC filings.)

Karen Lesetmoe, Republican from Oak Harbor, filed on March 23, 2022. Mrs. Lesetmoe reports $83,089.00 (up $49,665.59) and has $6,000 (unchanged) in loans for total contributions of $89,089.00. She reports expenditures of $66,049.33 (up $48,665.59). She reports no debt (unchanged). Mrs. Lesetmoe has been the recipient of $107,469.70 in support via independent expenditures, with none in opposition. (See Mrs. Lesetmoe’s PDC filings.)