VOTER INTERESTS PROJECT: Candidate Watch – Legislative District 10 (Oct 2022)

UPDATE (Oct. 23, 2022): Typical for September and October, contributions and expenditures have ramped up substantially as the voters begin to focus on the campaign. And, as expected, the 10th District is seeing some of the most expensive state House races: Clyde Shavers’ $406K in contributions ranks no. 2 for House races (behind Alicia Rule (D-Blaine) in the 42nd District. Dave Paul’s $365K puts him in 3rd place. Greg Gilday, with $312K is in 8th place, and Karen Lesetmoe’s $211K puts her in 25th place. But Ms. Lesetmoe benefits from being the top beneficiary of independent expenditures, with $316K spent on her behalf. (Shavers places 3rd here, Paul 4th, and Gilday 13th.)

Who is spending all this independent money? On the Republican side, it’s the realtors. The National Association of Realtors Fund has spent $154,471.66 supporting Mrs. Lesetmoe, and the Washington Realtors Political Action Committee has added $100,000. The Washington Realtors are also the largest independent supporter of Mr. Gilday, spending $60,000.

For the Democrats, it’s the labor unions. The New Direction PAC, whose top contributors are various branches of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), has spent $206,114.32* supporting Rep. Paul. Mr. Shavers, too, has been the recipient of New Direction’s largesse to the tune of $208,357.03. SEIU represents workers in healthcare, education, and property services (read: janitors, security workers, etc.).

* NOTE: The PDC reporting shows only $181,190.91 in independent expenditures supporting Mr. Paul; why this discrepancy? It may be that the figure above is as of the date of Mr. Paul’s last C4 filing, which was received by the PDC on Oct. 18. At least one independent expenditure report by New Directions PAC is dated Oct. 20.

	Previous Updates
September 15	July 21	June 12
May 14	April 16	March 10
January 17

ORIGINAL POST: Island County voters will see both State Representative positions for Legislative District 10 on the ballot this year. As of Jan. 17, 2022, four candidates have filed with the Public Disclosure Commission (PDC) to run for these offices. Filing for with the PDC allows the candidate to begin fundraising; candidates will still have to file with the County Auditor or Secretary of State’s office during Filing Week, May 16-20, 2022.

Candidates are required to report campaign contributions, including in-kind contributions, within five business days of receipt. Expenditures must be reported on a monthly basis. Contributions, except from political party committees, are limited to $1,000 per election. Thus, an individual or organization may contribute $2,000 each election cycle: $1,000 for the primary, and $1,000 for the general election.

Unlike presidential campaigns, voters rarely see polling information on state legislative races. Fundraising can often be seen as a proxy indicator of how well a campaign is doing. While it is not true that the candidate with the most money wins, large financial disparities between candidates are often a predictor of electoral success.

Position 1

Greg Gilday (incumbent), Republican from Camano Island, filed on January 10, 2021. Mr. Gilday started with $3,889.69 left over from his 2020 campaign, and has raised $312,497.89 (up $142,495.89 since our September update) since filing, bringing his total contributions to $316,387.58. He has spent $238,202.25 (up $133,121.33). Mr. Gilday reports debts of $7,577.00 (up from 0). In addition, the PDC reports that independent expenditures favoring Mr. Gilday have been made in the amount of $81,373.26 (unchanged); $10,621.41 (up from 0) in independent expenditures opposing Mr. Gilday have been reported. (See Mr. Gilday’s PDC filings.)

Clyde Shavers, Democrat from Oak Harbor, filed on January 10, 2022. Mr. Shavers reports $406,199.57 (up $210,820.43) in contributions and $383,697.14 (up $234,947.16) in expenditures and $56,900.00 (up $51,170.76) in debts. Independent expenditures totaling $184,870,78 (up $184,723,76) have been made in favor of Mr. Shavers; $21,953.65 (up from 0) have been made against. (See Mr. Shavers’ PDC filings.)

Position 2

Dave Paul (incumbent), Democrat from Oak Harbor, filed on February 3, 2021. Mr. Paul carried $6,504.78 over from his previous campaign, and has raised $365,754.92 (up $136,369.77), for total receipts of $372,259.70. His campaign reports expenditures of $329,515.13 (up $170,477.65). He also reports debts of $54,625.00 (up $53,625.00). Mr. Paul has benefitted from $181,190.91 in independent expenditures in his favor (up $115,888.21); $64,088.08 (up $29,899.70) have been reported against him. (See Mr. Paul’s PDC filings.)

Karen Lesetmoe, Republican from Oak Harbor, filed on March 23, 2022. Mrs. Lesetmoe reports $211,423.24 (up $84,080.89) and has no loans (unchanged). She reports expenditures of $125,829.91 (up $40,616.82). She reports $1,000 in debt (up from 0). Mrs. Lesetmoe has been the recipient of $316,689.92 (up $74,816.66) in support via independent expenditures, with none in opposition. (See Mrs. Lesetmoe’s PDC filings.)